ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections for Euro Area, March 2026 (ecb.europa.eu)

• ECB March 2026 projections incorporate Middle East war effects.
• Inflation spike from energy prices, expected to return to target by 2027-28.
• GDP growth weaker in 2026, recovers in 2027-28.

"The European Central Bank published its March 2026 staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, incorporating the impact of the Middle East war. Inflation is expected to spike due to higher oil and gas prices, then return to target in 2027-28. GDP growth is weaker in 2026 due to reduced purchasing power and uncertainty, but picks up in 2027-28. The projections are published four times a year and contribute to the ECB's monetary policy assessment."