NTMA Analysis of Irish Economy and Public Finances May 2026 (ntma.ie)

• MDD grew 4.9% in 2025, above Budget 2026 forecast of 3.3%.
• GDP growth of 12.3% in 2025 driven by pharmaceutical exports and frontloading.
• APR forecasts 2026 MDD growth of 2.1%, GDP growth of 3.1%, HICP inflation at 3.3%.
• General government surplus forecast at €9.2 billion (2.5% GNI*) for 2026.
• Corporate tax receipts expected to be €35 billion in 2026, with €20 billion windfall.
• Gross debt to GNI* ratio forecast to fall to 58% in 2026.

"The NTMA's May 2026 analysis shows Ireland's economy remained resilient in 2025 with MDD growth of 4.9% and GDP growth of 12.3%, driven by pharmaceutical exports and consumption. The Department of Finance's Annual Progress Report forecasts slower but positive growth in 2026, with MDD at 2.1% and GDP at 3.1%. Inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% due to energy price shocks from the Iran conflict. The fiscal position remains strong with a surplus of €9.2 billion forecast for 2026, though corporate tax concentration poses risks."