European Commission Spring 2026 Forecast: Irish GDP to contract in 2026 (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu)

• GDP growth: 12.3% (2025), -1.2% (2026), 3.4% (2027)
• Inflation (HICP): 2.1% (2025), 3.5% (2026), 2.6% (2027)
• General government surplus: 1.8% (2025), 1.4% (2026), 1.2% (2027) of GDP
• Public debt: 32.9% (2025), 32.4% (2026), 31.6% (2027) of GDP
• Risks from high concentration of corporate tax revenues in pharma and ICT
• Modified domestic demand growth: 2.8% (2026), 3.0% (2027)

"The European Commission published its Spring 2026 macroeconomic forecast for Ireland on 21 May 2026. Real GDP is projected to contract by 1.2% in 2026 after a 12.3% surge in 2025 driven by pharmaceutical exports. Modified domestic demand remains resilient, growing 2.8% in 2026. Inflation rises to 3.5% due to energy prices. The general government surplus narrows from 1.8% to 1.4% of GDP."