ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2026 (ecb.europa.eu)

• Euro area GDP growth baseline: 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, 1.4% in 2028.
• HICP inflation baseline: 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028.
• Alternative scenarios show significantly higher inflation and lower growth under prolonged energy supply disruptions.
• Energy price assumptions: oil peaks at USD 90/barrel (baseline), USD 119 (adverse), USD 145 (severe) in Q2 2026.
• Fiscal stance loosens in 2026, especially on defence and infrastructure spending in Germany.

"The ECB staff baseline projections for the euro area show GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, with HICP inflation peaking at 2.6% in 2026 before falling to 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. The projections incorporate a significant energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, with oil and gas prices assumed to peak in Q2 2026. Alternative adverse and severe scenarios illustrate higher inflation and lower growth paths depending on the severity and persistence of energy supply disruptions."