EPA Emissions Projections: Ireland Not on Track to Meet 2030 Climate Targets, Carbon Budgets to Be Exceeded (assets.gov.ie)

• Ireland not on track to meet 51% emissions reduction target by 2030; carbon budgets exceeded by up to 27%.
• Sectoral ceilings for agriculture, electricity, industry, and transport projected to be exceeded in 2025 and 2030.
• Under WAM scenario, 29% reduction by 2030 (same as 2023 projections); implementation gap remains large.
• Electricity sector shows largest projected reductions (57-62%) due to rapid renewable expansion; LULUCF emissions revised up.

"The EPA’s 2023-2050 greenhouse gas emissions projections show Ireland is not on track to meet its 2030 target of a 51% emissions reduction compared to 2018. The first two carbon budgets (2021-2030) are projected to be exceeded by 17-27%. Sectoral emissions ceilings for agriculture, electricity, industry, and transport are expected to be exceeded. Even with additional measures, EU non-ETS targets will not be met. Emissions reductions are projected at 29% under the WAM scenario, unchanged from 2023 projections, highlighting a significant implementation gap."